Covid-19 Bulletin

Although the May PMI figures for a swathe of advanced economies are still well below the 50-no change level, we are cautiously optimistic that output will stage a modest rebound this month

Ports are wounded but still alive and open for business

Based on IMF alternative GDP scenarios, Drewry depicted world port handling forecast. According to the British researchers, economic damage is skewed towards western countries, but most regions will face reduced container volumes

According to IHS Markit, the European PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) fell from 26.4 in March to 12.0 in April. Not surprisingly, the decline was most severe in those countries with the greatest outbreak of the COVID-19. Thus, the PMI fell to 9.2 in Spain, 10.9 in Italy, 11.1 in France, and 17.4 in Germany. These numbers shows that Europe’s economy effectively collapsed in April

According to UK based analysts Oxford Economics, the pandemic will have a huge impact on world trade. Steep falls in industrial output will hit trade in goods hard, while the unusually service-driven nature of the emergent recession also means services trade will plummet

The International Transport Forum claims that, as a result of Covid-19, global container trade volumes declined by 8.6% in February 2020 and the reduction is likely to be larger in the following months

Tourism is one of the most affected sectors of the pandemic, in particular hospitality, aviation and cruises, are at greater risk and, according to the epidemiologist Penn State Maciej Boni, we will not return to travel before one year

In the first quarter of this year, whilst the overall cargo throughput of major Chinese coastal ports declined 3.5%, according to the statistics released by China Ports & Harbors Association, the eight major Chinese ports reached a throughput of 37.63 million TEU container in Q1, a decline of 8.9% year-on-year

IMF claims that China’s economy, though affected by the effects of the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, is expected to see a recovery in the second quarter of the year thanks to the firms re- opening and the return of employees to work in March

According to the new IAPH COVID-19 Survey, from the ports viewpoint, the global maritime transport scenario shows a clear deterioration compared to the previous weeks